Interannual variability in ice formation and growth driven by difference in air temperature and snowfall, our study finds

A recent study published in The Cryosphere reveals that variability in freeze-up dates and early winter ice growth in a small subarctic lake is predominately driven by air temperatures and snowfall patterns, shedding light into key mechanisms driving early winter ice processes in northern, subarctic lakes.

ReSEC Team member, Arash Rafat, used high-resolution temperature measurements (15-minutes) of air, snow, ice, and water between October-December 2021-2023 to explain variability of 17 days in freeze-up dates, 8 days in freeze-up durations, and 12 cm in ice thicknesses by the end of December. A series of empirical models, developed based off these observations, were built using cumulative degree days of freezing and snowfall to accurately simulate total ice and snow-ice thicknesses.

Results from this study highlight the role of weather variability in ice formation and growth during early winter- a period that is crucial for effective and cost-effective winter road planning. Developed empirical relationships between air temperatures, snow, and ice thicknesses can be used for predicting the minimum ice thicknesses required for commencing ice road construction under increasingly variable climatic conditions.

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